Dorab Mistry Sees Malaysian CPO Prices Holding at RM4,500–RM5,000 Until December 2026

Mumbai — Malaysian crude palm oil (CPO) prices are expected to trade in a range of RM4,500–RM5,000 per tonne until December 2026, according to Dorab Mistry, director at Godrej International, as reported by Reuters on Thursday (1 October 2026). He cautioned that swelling Malaysian stocks would cap any rally.

From a near two-year high to a correction

According to Reuters, the benchmark futures contract on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives fell 1.58% to RM4,537 per tonne at Thursday's midday break. The same contract had touched RM5,049 per tonne in mid-September, described as its highest level in almost two years. In other words, prices have already fallen by around RM500 per tonne from that peak.

The correction continued the following week. As discussed in our report on the weakness ahead of MPOB data, near-month contracts fell even further on 6–7 October.

Stocks above 3 million tonnes

Mistry said Malaysian palm oil stocks were likely to exceed 3 million tonnes at the end of September. In his view, a volume that large will weigh on prices over the coming months. Official figures from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) will only be released in mid-October, so the projection remains a personal estimate.

• Bearish factor: Malaysian stocks expected to be above 3 million tonnes.
• Supportive factors: high energy prices driven by geopolitical conflict are boosting biodiesel demand, while Indonesia's 50% biodiesel mandate is expected to tighten supply.

El Niño and its delayed effect

Reuters noted that El Niño usually brings drier conditions to Indonesia and Malaysia and could curb production in 2027. Mistry added that new seed varieties are more resistant to dry weather. Weather impacts on output are generally not felt immediately, so the market is currently giving more weight to near-term stocks than to next year's supply risks.

Relevance for Indonesia

For Indonesia, this price range bears on the October 2026 CPO reference price, which is the basis for export duties and export levies, and on feedstock needs for the B50 programme. Prices that stay high support plantation fund revenue, but also affect the price gap between biodiesel and diesel. This analysis is not investment advice.