CPO Prices Weaken Ahead of MPOB Data, Analysts Still See Prices Above RM4,000 per Tonne

Kuala Lumpur — Crude palm oil (CPO) futures on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives weakened in early October 2026 as traders held back ahead of the Malaysian Palm Oil Board's (MPOB) monthly supply and demand data, due on Monday, 12 October 2026. The figures are expected to show Malaysian palm oil stocks nearing their seasonal peak.

Price movements

At Tuesday's close (6 October 2026), according to Bernama, the October 2026 contract fell RM50 to RM4,340 per tonne, the November contract slipped RM23 to RM4,457 per tonne, and the December contract eased RM18 to RM4,560 per tonne. Physical CPO for October delivery in the southern region also weakened, down RM40 to RM4,380 per tonne. The decline continued the following day: the October contract fell another RM30 to RM4,310 per tonne on Wednesday (7 October 2026), as reported by several market outlets.

Domestically, CPO on the state plantation commodity exchange (KPBN) Inacom was quoted at IDR 14,625 per kg on Wednesday (7 October 2026), down IDR 41 per kg from the previous day, according to InfoSAWIT. Over September, the benchmark contract on Bursa Malaysia corrected by around 5.76%.

Three bearish factors

• Weaker crude oil. Iceberg X analyst David Ng said softer crude oil prices—with Brent at one point dropping to around US$97 per barrel—together with concerns over high domestic stocks weighed on sentiment. He expects prices to find support around RM4,500 per tonne, with resistance at RM4,650 per tonne.
• Sluggish exports. Several cargo surveyor reports showed Malaysia's palm oil product exports in September fell between 17.1% and 28.8% from August.
• Soybean oil and stocks. Weaker soybean oil prices in Chicago also weighed on palm oil as a substitute vegetable oil. Meanwhile, Malaysian production is at its seasonal peak, leading the market to expect stocks to build.

Outlook: still above RM4,000

Despite the short-term weakness, several analysts expect CPO prices to hold above RM4,000 per tonne through the end of 2026, as cited by Palm Oil Magazine from The Edge (August 2026):

Institution	2026 average forecast	Notes
CIMB Securities	RM4,450/tonne	2027: RM4,550/tonne; El Niño could curb output from October
Public Investment Bank	~RM4,400/tonne	For 2026–2027
Maybank IB	RM4,400/tonne	El Niño and Indonesia's B50 as key factors
TA Securities	RM4,300/tonne	High stocks limit short-term price gains

The main supporting factor cited by analysts is Indonesia's B50 programme, which diverts a large share of palm oil supply from export markets to domestic fuel needs, along with the risk of El Niño weather curbing production in 2027. In its 2026/27 projections, the USDA actually raised Indonesia's palm oil output to 47.2 million tonnes (from 46.7 million tonnes), while cutting its estimates for global and Malaysian production.

Impact on Indonesia

Global CPO price movements directly affect three things in Indonesia: fresh fruit bunch (FFB) prices at farm level, export levy revenue that funds biodiesel incentives, and the next period's biodiesel market index price (HIP). The MPOB data on 12 October will set the direction for prices in the short term. This analysis is not investment advice.