Indonesia's Energy Diplomacy with the US and Russia: From US$15 Billion to 150 Million Barrels of Oil

Jakarta — The Indonesian government is positioning energy diplomacy as one of the shields of national energy security amid global conflict. Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Bahlil Lahadalia said Indonesia is being affected even though it is not a party to the fighting, while cooperation with the United States and Russia forms part of the effort to diversify sources of oil and LPG supply.

Bahlil's message: the impact is feeding through to fuel prices

Speaking at the Investor Daily Summit 2026 on 7 October, Bahlil said geopolitical uncertainty was creating instability across almost the entire world. Conflict, he said, is affecting supply chains, industrial raw materials and fuel prices. He said he remains in constant contact with energy ministries in various countries, but no one can predict when the problems will be resolved, according to Metro TV News (9 October 2026).

The track record of cooperation with the US

The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) recorded that Bahlil explained on 1 March 2026 that the reciprocal trade agreement finalised by President Prabowo Subianto and US President Donald Trump in Washington DC on 19 February 2026 includes an indicative value of US$15 billion for purchases of US energy. The breakdown is around US$3.5 billion for LPG, US$4.5 billion for crude oil and US$7 billion for certain refined fuel products.

• According to Bahlil, the scheme does not increase import volumes but only changes the country of origin ("we are only substituting").
• Prices follow market mechanisms; he said LPG from the US is far cheaper than from other countries.
• National LPG demand is around 8.3 million tonnes a year and domestic production around 1.6 million tonnes, leaving imports of around 7 million tonnes.

Supply from Russia

After Prabowo met President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on 13 April 2026, Bahlil said on 16 April that a crude oil deal with Russia was "almost final", according to Katadata, while LPG talks were still continuing. He did not disclose import volumes. On 23 April, Hashim Djojohadikusumo, the President's Special Envoy for Energy and Environment, said Russia had committed 150 million barrels (a claim by the Indonesian government alone, with no independent confirmation yet): 100 million barrels to be shipped first and an additional 50 million barrels if needed, at an unspecified special price, as reported by Antara.

Import dependence and the role of biodiesel

Katadata noted that domestic fuel demand is around 1.6 million barrels per day, while domestic crude oil lifting is around 610,000 barrels per day. The gap illustrates how heavily Indonesia depends on imports of crude oil and refined fuels.

On the diesel side, the B50 programme is part of the answer. The government aims to halt diesel imports of around 3–4 million kilolitres a year, as discussed in B50 Fully Rolled Out at All Fuel Stations, Government Studies B60. ITS energy expert Ary Bachtiar, in a written statement carried by Metro TV, said short-term diplomacy needs to be combined with higher oil production and the B50 and E50 biofuel programmes.