Fact Check: Is B50 Making Cooking Oil Scarce and Expensive? — Misleading

The claim that B50 is making cooking oil scarce and expensive is misleading. Cooking oil prices have indeed risen and were still among the drivers of inflation as of September 2026, but the increase began before B50 took effect on 1 July 2026, no shortages have been reported since B50 began, and the government points to other factors such as stock absorbed by food aid and global crude palm oil (CPO) prices. B50's indirect role through CPO demand remains a legitimate concern, but it has not been shown to be the main cause.

Claim

The narrative that "B50 makes cooking oil scarce and expensive" has grown since the B50 plan was announced. In October 2025, Mansuetus Darto, chair of the Indonesian Palm Oil Farmers Organisation (POPSI), told CNBC Indonesia that moving to B50 would disrupt supply to the food industry. IPB University professor Bayu Krisnamurthi, at a focus group discussion reported by detikFinance, estimated that cooking oil would rise by about IDR 1,900 per litre if B50 were implemented. On 4 April 2026, a column by a Kontan senior editor argued that B50 risked pushing up prices and causing cooking oil shortages because energy and food would compete for the same CPO. When the price of Minyakita, the government-regulated cooking oil brand, rose in April 2026, the link to B50 became a public talking point that several ministers moved to deny.

Verdict: Misleading

The claim mixes a true fact (cooking oil prices rose) with an unproven cause-and-effect (B50 as the culprit) and an element not supported by data (shortages). The Minyakita price increase happened months before B50 took effect, and our checks found no official or credible media reports of cooking oil shortages after 1 July 2026.

The facts

• Prices rose before B50 began. The Kontan column of 4 April 2026 cited a national average Minyakita price of IDR 16,800 per litre, above the IDR 15,700 retail price ceiling (HET). Trade Minister Budi Santoso, quoted by Investortrust on 30 April 2026, put the average at IDR 15,887 per litre, with some regions reaching IDR 20,000–22,000.
• The government's explanation: food aid and CPO prices. Coordinating Food Minister Zulkifli Hasan said Minyakita stock had been "sucked up" by food aid of about 132 million litres for 33.2 million recipients, thinning market supply (Investortrust). Speaking to ANTARA on 3 May 2026, Budi Santoso said a planned review of the price ceiling was driven by rising global CPO prices and was unrelated to B50.
• The agriculture minister's denial. Agriculture Minister Andi Amran Sulaiman, quoted by Republika on 15 April 2026, questioned any link between cooking oil prices and B50, saying palm oil exports had risen from 26 million to 32 million tonnes, a sign of abundant raw material. This is a government claim; the production figures he cited also varied between 44, 45 and nearly 50 million tonnes.
• CPO needed for B50. detikFinance (18 June 2026) reported that B50 needs about 1.74 million tonnes of CPO for six months, or about 3.5 million tonnes a year, against CPO output of about 51.6 million tonnes last year. Eddy Martono, chair of the Indonesian Palm Oil Association (GAPKI), said B50 should not cause supply problems in the short term.
• After B50 began. The Trade Ministry recorded an average Minyakita price of IDR 15,870 per litre as of 3 July 2026 (Fortune Indonesia). Statistics Indonesia (BPS) reported September 2026 month-on-month inflation of 0.30%; cooking oil was not among the main monthly contributors, but it was named among the drivers of core inflation and among the food commodities contributing most to annual inflation (IDX Channel, Investortrust). These data show cooking oil is pricier than a year earlier, not scarce, and they do not isolate B50's contribution.

Context

Part of the concern is reasonable. B50 adds to domestic CPO demand, and stronger demand can help hold up the price of cooking oil's raw material. The government itself is hedging that risk: Trade Ministry Regulation (Permendag) 20/2026, in force since 29 June 2026, requires producers to supply packaged cooking oil to the domestic market, with sanctions up to temporary suspension of business. According to Fortune Indonesia, the rule was drafted with B50 and export policy for strategic natural resources in mind, both of which could reduce palm oil available for domestic use.

So the right question is not "is B50 making cooking oil scarce" but how much B50 adds to price pressure through CPO, and whether supply safeguards are working. For the latest on the price ceiling, see also our report on the Minyakita HET.