Research Brief: Transisi Bersih — B50 Net Benefit Negative at IDR 115.9–191.7 Trillion a Year

The think tank Transisi Bersih calculates that B50 has a negative net benefit under every price scenario, ranging from minus IDR 115.9 trillion to minus IDR 191.7 trillion a year. The figures appear in the working paper "Mandatory Biodiesel B50 di Indonesia: Solusi Ketahanan Energi atau Beban Ekonomi Baru?" (Mandatory B50 Biodiesel in Indonesia: Energy Security Solution or New Economic Burden?). The paper was written by researcher Aimatul Yumna and launched in Jakarta on 20 May 2026. For 2015–2024, it puts the biodiesel programme's cumulative cost-benefit balance at a deficit of more than IDR 409.6 trillion. This study is separate from the civil society coalition's B50 land-demand study published in April 2026.

Key findings

• Historical deficit. Across 2015–2024, the programme's net benefit was negative every year, with the largest deficits in 2021 (−IDR 119.95 trillion) and 2024 (−IDR 73.5 trillion). According to the paper, for every IDR 1 saved on diesel imports, the state bears IDR 1.48 in forgone crude palm oil (CPO) exports and subsidies.
• Forgone CPO exports are the biggest cost. In 2024, lost CPO export value reached IDR 197.8 trillion, exceeding diesel import savings of IDR 153 trillion in the same year.
• Diesel import ratio. The import share of diesel consumption fell from 36.4% (2012) to a low of 9.6% (2021), then rose again to 21.8% in 2024 because diesel demand grew faster than biodiesel supply.
• CPO balance under B50. B50 is expected to divert about 36% of output, or 19 million tonnes of 52.762 million tonnes of CPO and PKO, to biodiesel. Exports would fall from 29.5 million tonnes (2024) to about 18.8 million tonnes, 43% below 2022, with potential foreign exchange losses of USD 10–12 billion a year.
• Allocation of BPDP funds. Of a total of IDR 31.50 trillion, IDR 29.38 trillion (93.28%) went to biodiesel subsidies. The smallholder replanting programme (PSR) received only about IDR 1.29 trillion (4.11%).

B50 projection (IDR trillion/year)	2025 baseline	Iran–US escalation	Geopolitical easing
Diesel import savings	+149.2	+248.8	+181.2
Forgone CPO exports	−298.9	−359.5	−264.1
Biodiesel subsidy (estimate)	−42.0	−68.0	−33.0
Net benefit	−191.7	−178.7	−115.9

Methodology

The study applies a cost-benefit analysis to 2014–2024 using the formula: net benefit = diesel import savings − forgone CPO exports − biodiesel subsidy. Import savings are calculated from the volume of biodiesel consumed, assuming each litre of biodiesel replaces one litre of imported diesel. Forgone exports are calculated using a ratio of 1 kL of biodiesel ≈ 0.95 tonnes of CPO, multiplied by the international CPO price and the exchange rate. Subsidy data come from actual payouts by the Plantation Fund Management Agency (BPDP). Other data sources include the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM), the Handbook of Energy and Economy Statistics of Indonesia, the World Bank, Bloomberg, Bank Indonesia and Statistics Indonesia.

The B50 projection assumes about 20 million kL of biodiesel, equal to a 50% blend of roughly 40 million kL of diesel demand. It uses three scenarios. Baseline: CPO at USD 955/tonne, IDR 16,475/USD and Brent at USD 72/barrel. Escalation: CPO at USD 1,100/tonne, IDR 17,200/USD and Brent at USD 115/barrel. Geopolitical easing: CPO at USD 820/tonne, IDR 16,950/USD and Brent at USD 85/barrel. The paper also includes OLS regressions of palm land area and employment on biodiesel consumption.

Limitations

• Stated by the author: the one-to-one substitution assumption ignores biodiesel's roughly 9–10% lower energy content, so import savings are likely slightly overstated.
• Stated by the author: the land and employment regressions rely on only 13 annual data points, are prone to spurious regression and include no control variables. The results therefore show only the direction of a relationship, not cause and effect.
• Stated by the author: BPDP subsidy data may not capture implicit costs such as regulation, oversight and environmental externalities. In the B50 projection, subsidies are estimated from their historical ratio to forgone CPO exports.
• Editor's note: the forgone-export calculation assumes all CPO diverted to biodiesel could be sold abroad at international prices, without accounting for the effect of extra supply on world prices. The projection uses about 20 million kL, more than the 2026 B50 allocation of 16.7 million kL. The paper has a single author and has not been peer-reviewed.

Relevance for B50/B60 policy

Transisi Bersih considers B40 the limit of economic viability. It recommends three conditions that must all be met before B50: reform of the biodiesel market index price (HIP) formula, reallocation of BPDP funds with at least 25% going to PSR, and independent verification that biodiesel absorbs no more than 25% of national CPO output. If the third condition is not met, the paper says B50 should be cancelled, not merely postponed.

Other proposals include binding caps on BPDP allocations (at least 25% for PSR, at least 10% for research and certification, at most 60% for subsidies). The paper also calls for an automatic correction mechanism, set by Presidential Regulation, that lowers the blend if the net benefit worsens. It notes that the IDR 28–52 trillion a year paid out by BPDP in subsidies is equivalent to investment in 5–10 GWp of solar PV.

These recommendations now face a policy already in force: B50 has applied since 1 July 2026. Eniya Listiani Dewi, Director General of New, Renewable Energy and Energy Conservation (EBTKE), was quoted by ANTARA as projecting that B50 would save up to IDR 157.28 trillion in foreign exchange in 2026. At the 29 September 2026 launch of a joint study with Yayasan Madani Berkelanjutan, IESR, Coaction Indonesia and CIFOR-ICRAF, Aimatul Yumna again described B40 as the most that can be tolerated.