IPOC 2026: B50 Funding and 2027 Palm Supply in Focus as S&P Cites CPO Price Range

Nusa Dua — At IPOC 2026's main conference on Thursday, 12 November, S&P Global Energy analyst CK Quick projected that Indonesian palm oil output could fall by about 4.4 million tonnes in 2027. At the same forum, LPEM FEB UI economist Teuku Muhammad Riefky Hasan presented a scenario in which B50 biodiesel support could cost US$2.6 billion if Brent crude trades at US$70 a barrel. Both figures are conditional forecasts, not realised production or spending.

2027 supply and the CPO price range

As reported by Katadata from the conference, Quick linked the potential output decline to El Niño. S&P also projected a drop of about 2 million tonnes in Indonesia's palm oil stocks next year. Thinner inventories combined with palm oil use in biodiesel could reduce supplies available for export. S&P cited a range of US$965–US$1,305 per tonne for Indonesian FOB crude palm oil (CPO), but the report did not specify the date or horizon for that price range. It should not therefore be presented as a fixed target for the whole of 2027.

Indonesian Palm Oil Association (GAPKI) Chairman Eddy Martono put forward a different scenario: CPO output could fall by around 3 million tonnes in 2027 while palm oil needs for the biodiesel mandate could reach some 18 million tonnes. He said exports might drop by as much as 5 million tonnes, depending on end-of-year output. S&P's 4.4 million tonnes and GAPKI's 3 million tonnes are different forecasts, not measured losses to be added together.

In ANTARA's account of the opening, Eddy reported 47 million tonnes of palm oil production through September 2026 and domestic consumption of 18.8 million tonnes. These year-to-date figures are not full-year estimates. Nor should export volume including palm, palm-kernel and oleochemical products be treated as pure CPO exports. Ahead of the event, GAPKI proposed adjusting biodiesel blending to feedstock and funding conditions. That is an industry proposal, not a government change to the B50 mandate.

Funding B50 if crude oil falls

Riefky told Katadata that the reference price for diesel follows crude oil, whereas biodiesel pricing follows CPO. Under Brent scenarios of US$100, US$80 and US$70 a barrel, he modelled support for subsidised diesel blends at about US$700 million, US$1.9 billion and US$2.6 billion respectively. The exercise assumed a biodiesel price near US$930 a tonne and public service obligation (PSO) volume of about 8.5 million tonnes. These are funding scenarios, not money already disbursed by the Plantation Fund Management Agency (BPDP).

Katadata also reported LPEM FEB UI's estimate of US$2.5 billion–US$3 billion in export-levy receipts under an assumed 26.5 million tonnes of exports. At Brent US$70, the modelled US$2.6 billion PSO support bill could approach those receipts. That does not establish an actual funding shortfall: crude and CPO prices, shipments and disbursement can diverge from the model. The site's biodiesel market index price (HIP) and CPO price pages show current data, which should not be confused with prices used in the scenario.

EUDR and decisions still pending

According to ANTARA, Eddy described the market-access opportunity offered by the Indonesia–EU trade agreement alongside the traceability and deforestation-free requirements of the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR). GAPKI called for a stronger Indonesian Sustainable Palm Oil (ISPO) system and protection for smallholders. Coordinating Economic Minister Airlangga Hartarto said, also according to ANTARA, that the government is developing an ISPO information system linking plantation certification and supply-chain data. Developing a system is not the same as automatic EU recognition.

The official programme listed ESDM official Eniya Listiani Dewi on biofuel policy and Achmad Nur Hidayat on sustainable biodiesel for Thursday's session. The sources cited here report no new B60 mandate decision. Dedicated price-outlook presentations by Thomas Mielke and Dorab Mistry are scheduled for Friday, 13 November; S&P's quoted range must not be attributed to them. The IPOC 2026 hub carries the programme and further coverage.