IPOC 2026: Mistry Sees Malaysian Palm Oil at RM4,500–RM5,000 Through April 2027

Nusa Dua — At the close of IPOC 2026 on Friday, 13 November, analyst Dorab Mistry forecast Malaysia’s benchmark palm oil contract at RM4,500–RM5,000 a tonne through April 2027, according to Reuters as carried by The Star. At the same conference, Oil World’s Thomas Mielke projected a decline of 2.5 million–3.5 million tonnes in global palm oil exports in 2027, InfoSAWIT reported. These are forecasts, not realised prices or exports. Neither the Malaysian futures range nor a global trade estimate is an Indonesian CPO price target; biodiesel feedstock demand is one reason supply is under scrutiny.

Mistry’s price range has a specific market and time frame

Mistry, a director at Godrej International, linked the forecast to a low-yield phase for oil palm fruit expected to begin in February after this year’s El Niño-related drought. Reuters reported that he expected overall palm oil output to fall by 2.7 million tonnes in 2027. He also said traders had been too bullish too soon about drought damage: output remained in a high-yield phase that might persist into January. His RM4,500–RM5,000 range therefore refers to the Malaysian benchmark through April 2027, not a guaranteed full-year price or an Indonesian FOB CPO quotation.

InfoSAWIT reported that Mielke expected growth in global vegetable oil production to be below 4 million tonnes in the 2026/27 season. He argued that rising demand, including energy-sector consumption, could reduce stocks and require higher prices to balance supply. His forecast of a 2.5 million–3.5 million tonne decline concerns worldwide palm oil exports in 2027. The report did not provide a numerical price target from Mielke, so his view should not be conflated with Mistry’s range.

B50, export availability and the unresolved 2027 mandate

The connection to Indonesian biodiesel is direct. Fastmarkets analyst Regina Koh said growing domestic consumption, particularly for biodiesel, could limit palm oil available to international buyers, according to ANTARA’s Friday report. The same report cited S&P Global analyst CK Quick’s forecast of a 4.4 million tonne tightening in Indonesian supply and an approximately 1.2 million tonne drop in Malaysian production in 2027. These are projections with different scopes, not figures that can simply be added to Mistry’s overall estimate.

ANTARA reported that Eniya Listiani Dewi, head of the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources’ Directorate General of New, Renewable Energy and Energy Conservation, said the government was still evaluating the biodiesel mandate for 2027, with talks planned for the following week. Technical readiness, feedstock availability and financing risks remained under review. Biodiesel deliveries through November had reached 13.84 million kL, or roughly 83% of an allocation of 16.75 million kL, she said. This does not establish a final B50 policy for next year, nor did the sources reviewed announce a new B60 decision. Economist Achmad Nur Hidayat’s model, as reported by ANTARA, identified export and subsidy-funding risks under an inflexible B50 mandate over 2027–2030; it was a simulation, not an observed result.

On export procedures, InfoSAWIT quoted Danatara Sumberdaya Indonesia chief Luke Thomas Mahony as saying that a palm oil export processing platform was planned to begin operating on 1 January 2027. A service tariff was due to be announced in December; his preliminary indication of a single-digit US dollar charge is not a final rate. The planned procedure matters to exporters as domestic feedstock use rises, but it does not itself demonstrate a change in export volumes.

What it means for Indonesia: traceability and distinct market signals

ANTARA reported that economic affairs official Dida Gardera described Indonesia’s SI-ISPO traceability system as nearly complete, with operation targeted before the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) begins to apply to larger operators. Indonesia’s ISPO certification scope also covers palm-based bioenergy businesses. According to the European Commission, the EUDR application date is 30 December 2026 for medium and large operators and traders, and 30 June 2027 for most micro and small enterprises. Products within its scope require due diligence and traceability. A system nearing completion is not evidence that every shipment already complies with EU rules.

Editorial analysis: Mistry’s Malaysian benchmark forecast, Mielke’s global export outlook and Indonesia’s review of its B50 mandate have different units, markets and time horizons. Koh’s warning indicates a possible trade-off between domestic biodiesel use and export availability; the actual outcome still depends on production, policy and trade requirements. None of these reports determines Indonesia’s 2027 fresh fruit bunch or biodiesel prices. See the IPOC 2026 hub, B50 guide and latest CPO prices.