Indonesia Biodiesel Weekly: Mixed CPO, B50 Debate and SAF (12–16 October 2026)

Jakarta — The week of 12–16 October 2026 was dominated by debate over the benefits and costs of B50, a changing palm oil supply outlook, and efforts to widen the feedstock base for biofuels and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). Domestic CPO benchmarks were mixed: the KPBN tender strengthened from the first completed transaction of the week, while the nearest ICDX contract and Bursa Malaysia's third-month contract ended slightly lower. Meanwhile, Indonesia's October biodiesel market index price (HIP) remained at IDR 15,072 per litre, and updated fresh fruit bunch (FFB) prices showed wide differences across schemes and provinces.

This week's numbers

KPBN did not produce a transaction price on Monday, so the comparison starts with the first available completed tender on Tuesday. All series can be tracked through Media Biodiesel's price hub.

Top stories this week

• B50 was tested from two directions. The IEA estimated that biodiesel cut Indonesia's diesel import dependence by about 35%, although its projection still relied on B40. In contrast, a Bank Indonesia researchers' working paper and a Transisi Bersih analysis highlighted potential export earnings losses, fiscal pressure and negative net benefits at higher blends.
• USDA lowered its supply outlook. Indonesia's 2026/27 palm oil production forecast was cut by 2.2 million tonnes to 45 million tonnes, while projected exports were reduced to 21.6 million tonnes.
• Malaysia reported elevated stocks. September palm oil stocks climbed to 3.51 million tonnes as production rose and exports weakened, providing a short-term counterweight to concerns over tighter regional supply.
• TEI opened an export deal channel. Trade Expo Indonesia 2026 business matching brought international buyers together with palm oil and biodiesel participants. Official announcements are still needed to measure biofuel-specific contracts or investment.
• SAF feedstocks continued to diversify. Pertamina and PAL Jaya are studying fats, oils and grease from wastewater, while Palembang is preparing a used cooking oil collection network. Globally, IATA, Airbus and Accenture estimated corporate demand could support 1–1.9 million tonnes of SAF by 2030.
• FFB prices did not move uniformly. Riau independent smallholder prices fell 3.51%, while other provincial updates showed differences based on formulas, pricing periods and partnership schemes.
• The US proposed RIN reallocation. The Environmental Protection Agency proposed fully reallocating 770 million RIN credits from small refinery exemptions across 2026–2027. The proposal primarily supports the domestic US biofuel market and does not automatically open access for Indonesian biodiesel.

What to watch next week

• During 19–23 October, watch for contract and memorandum announcements after TEI 2026, as well as daily direction in KPBN, ICDX and Bursa Malaysia. There is no fixed public release date for the November HIP.
• Changes to IPOC 2026 participant information must be submitted by 23 October. The conference will be held in Bali on 11–13 November 2026 and includes the 2027 palm oil price outlook.
• MPOB says Malaysia's monthly palm oil industry performance statistics are released on the 10th at around 12.30pm Malaysian time; the next October-data release is expected on 10 November.
• The EU Deforestation Regulation will apply to large and medium-sized operators from 30 December 2026. Palm oil exporters must distinguish products already within scope from newly added products given a transition until 30 December 2027.